印度橡胶价格或将触及历史记录高位因短缺

April 13 (Bloomberg) -- Rubber prices in India, the second-
> fastest-growing automobile market after China, may advance to a
> record as demand outstrips supplies and high global rates deter
> imports, according to TransGraph Consulting Pvt.
>     Immediate-delivery price for ribbed smoked sheet, used to
> make tires, may jump as much as 13 percent to 270 rupees ($6.1)
> a kilogram by end of this month, Ravi Chandra, vice president
> for research at TransGraph, said in an interview today. The
> commodity has surged 50 percent in the past year at Kottayam in
> the southern state of Kerala, the nation’s benchmark.
>     Increasing costs may force Indian tiremakers including
> Apollo Tyres Ltd. and Ceat Ltd. to raise prices to guard profit
> margin. Rubber futures in Tokyo reached a record 535.7 yen a
> kilogram on Feb. 18 on concerns supplies from key growers will
> fail to meet growing demand from automakers.
>     “Due to the large holding capacity of the farmers,
> supplies to the market are limited,” said Chandra, who has been
> forecasting commodity prices for more than a decade. “Imports
> are at a disparity, and this is giving some kind of
> encouragement to the domestic prices.”
>     Growers and dealers are holding about 246,500 metric tons
> of natural rubber, enough to meet India’s demand for three
> months, as they expect prices will climb on increasing demand,
> he said. Futures may rise to 275 rupees on the National Multi-
> Commodity Exchange of India Ltd., he said. The May-delivery
> contract closed at 245.17 rupees yesterday.
>     “Rubber is not readily available now in the local
> market,” N. Radhakrishnan, an adviser to the Cochin Rubber
> Merchant Association, said by phone from Kochi. “There is a
> supply-demand mismatch and we have to depend on imports only.”
>
>                          Imports Gain
>
>     India’s rubber imports in the 11 months through February
> rose 4 percent from a year earlier to 171,161 tons to bridge a
> shortage, according to the state-run Rubber Board. Higher global
> prices may pare purchases 42 percent to 8,000 tons in the two
> months ending May 31 from the preceding two-month period,
> according to TransGraph.
>     Rubber in Tokyo has rebounded from a four month low of 353
> yen on March 15 after top three producers -- Thailand, Indonesia
> and Malaysia -- moved to counter price slump. Futures lost as
> much as 4 percent today as a slump in oil cut the appeal of the
> commodity and Toyota Motor Corp. said its car production in
> Europe will be halted later this month, boosting speculation
> demand for tires will weaken.
>     Tiremakers will need to increase prices because of rising
> raw material costs including rubber, said Satish Sharma, chief
> of India operations at Apollo Tyres. Apollo, the nation’s
> biggest tire maker, on April 1 increased truck and bus radial-
> tire prices for the replacement market by 6 percent and other
> tires by 3 percent, he said.
>
>                        ‘Going into Red’
>
>     “The tire industry, if it has to save itself from going
> into the red, would need to increase the prices across the board
> by at least 10 to 12 percent,” said Sharma. “To maintain
> healthy profit margins, the industry will have to increase tire
> prices by at least 20 percent or so,” he said.
>     Ceat Ltd. is planning to raise prices by 3 percent to 4
> percent for the replacement market this month, Arnab Banerjee,
> vice president for sales and marketing, said in an e-mailed
> reply to questions.
>     Bridgestone Corp. and its Indian rivals including Apollo
> and MRF Ltd. are investing $3 billion in plants to meet rising
> demand for tires, according to the nation’s Automotive Tyre
> Manufacturers’ Association. Car sales in the world’s second-most
> populous nation may more than double to 3 million by 2015,
> according to the government, boosting demand for rubber.
>     Car sales grew 30 percent, the biggest gain in at least
> nine years, to 1.98 million in the year ended March 31, the
> Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers said on April 8.
>    Rubber contributes 43 percent to the raw-material costs of
> making tires, according to the Indian tiremakers’ group.